Saturday, January 19, 2008

Inevitability 2.0?

With McCain and Hillary's wins today, the question going into Florida is whether our original front-runners are once again on top. If Hillary can win next Saturday, at least among my unrepresentative sample of friends, all agree she'll be our first female nominee of a major party. If not, who knows.

On the Republican side, the comeback kid took his gains in New Hampshire, reminded South Carolina why some of them liked him the first time around, and eeked out a win against populist Mike Huckabee. I'm a Huckabee fan, but this is definitely the end of the line for him. Again, the unrepresentative sample agrees, Florida is about McCain and Romney. John has the momentum and Mitt the money. If Florida repeats South Carolina, all the talk of a brokered convention is off, and we've got our candidates. If I had to put my money anywhere, it's on those two.

Isn't it a little ironic that if the same question was asked a year ago today, you'd get the same answer... I understand why Hillary turned out the way she did, but McCain's comeback needs a better look from a numbers perspective. Exit polls analysis to come, later...

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